Is the PC dead yet? My take on it

My dad sent me an article titled "Dell outlines the death of the PC". In it, they paint a picture of the shift in the market that mobile devices have caused, and the overall effect it has had on PC manufacturers such as Dell.

Then he asked me a loaded question: what does this mean for me? Should I begin diversifying into mobile tech?

So for those that are interested, here is the response that I penned:

Dad,
Here is a carpentry analogy: do you think that the invention of the nail gun hurt the sales of hammers? Yes it did. But it it remove the need for hammers? No it didn't. When there was no other option but to use a hammer, that is what people used. And when the new product entered the market that made many tasks easier, sales of the old declined, and sales of the new went up. The old product was already a commodity market, and the new product became one very fast as companies saw that the new product sold well, and more and more manufactures began making them.

It's a pattern that's been repeated a million times, and will be repeated a million more. When a new product enters the picture that everyone wants/needs, it will eventually become a commodity. That basically means:

• the prices become as low as possible
• the companies that manufacture it make very little profit on it (ie., low margins)
• manufactures really only make a profit on bulk sales and commercial contracts
• products become generic "cookie-cutter" designs
• it's very difficult for someone new to enter the market
• the makers of the product are constantly trying to come up with some gimmick to sell a few more than the other guys
• consumers are constantly wanting to drive the prices even lower

Desktops and laptops have been a commodity market for years already. Mobile devices such as tablets and smartphones are fast approaching that too. There is still some room to grow in the mobile industry, but in my estimation, the ceiling is fast approaching as the market is becoming saturated with faster, better, cheaper devices. The newest, hottest devices coming out in 2013 look almost exactly like the ones that came out last year, only with a couple more features. To me, that is a sign that the balance is nearly here. 

But that's just the technology side. On the consumer side, people are still learning how to integrate the mobile devices into everyday life and business. Part of it is that these devices are just fun. It's fun to have all that power and information literally at your finger-tips. It's fun to carry a little mobile game station in your pocket. It's super cool that it's:

• a phone, 
• and it texts, 
• and it's a camera, 
• and a video recorder, 
• and a game station, 
• and a web browser, 
• and a newspaper,
• and an MP3 player, 
• and a TV, 
• and an encyclopedia, 
• and just a general time-filler during all those times you have to wait on something. 

Because of all this, people want to justify having one, or having several, especially if they can somehow rationalize that the device can be productive too. 

The article referenced "bring your own device" policies. With so many people carrying smartphones and tablets that are literally handheld computers, this has big ramifications. For some businesses this is a huge security threat, and for others it's an opportunity to save money by allowing employees to use their own devices instead of buying the devices for them. But in either case, businesses are creating policies on how to handle the shift in the market.

Needless to say, the market is still in flux, and, like you, there are a lot of people that want to know how this all affects them. It comes down to your needs and a few facts. Some advantages of mobile devices are:

• Mobile devices will continue to get cheaper and easier to get.
• Mobile software will continue to get more prolific and better designed.
• Mobile devices have several key advantages to desktops and laptops:
  - super-mobile
  - longer battery life
  - lighter weight
  - very fast boot times
  - cheap applications (prices $1 to $10 are the norm, versus $20-$500 and up for desktop applications)
• Mobile devices are useful when resources need to be accessed while on the go
• They are also useful when the device itself needs to be moved around or change hands
• Some can be used as a desk top workstation when high productivity is needed.
• Some support external monitors, keyboards, and mice. 
• They can function as USB drives, so resources can easily be copied from desktops and laptops to the mobile device to be used or copied elsewhere.
• Built-in cameras and video recorders make it very easy to record events and activities.
• They are incredibly fun to play with!

But there are areas where mobile devices fall short. Some things to note about desktops and laptops are:

• Desktops are large and not very mobile. This can be a good thing.
• Keyboards, mice, monitors, speakers, web-cams, etc can all be easily replaced
• Physical, wired connections to networks are more reliable and secure
• They are easy to upgrade, especially desktops

Desktops and laptops are not going away anytime soon. And this is because of the disadvantages of mobile devices:

• Mobile devices tend to have a heavy dependency on the web, i.e., being "always connected".
• Even if the devices are not literally "always connected", they still depend entirely on Wi-Fi or a digital data plan with a cellphone carrier for Internet. 
• Data requirements of mobile devices will require additional cost for carrier contracts or equipment such as a wireless router.
• Can't be upgraded (aside from adding an SD card for secondary storage in some devices)
• Upgrading requires replacing the device
• Mobile devices are more easily carried off, dropped, damaged, etc. 
• Regarding productivity, a person on a mobile device is not going to be as productive as someone sitting still at a desktop or laptop. Several factors cause this:
  - more distractions/interruptions when on-the-go
  - lack of a physical keyboard and mouse impair productivity (eg., one-handed typing while the other hand holds the devices)
  - smaller screen
  - mobile devices largely do not support applications running along-side each other (multiple apps can run at a time but each app requires the full screen)
• Overall shorter shelf-life (2-3 years vs. 3-4 for laptops and 4-6 for desktops)
• Any new device based on a new operating system (such as Android or Apple's iOS) will require a learning curve.
• Costs can be difficult to justify for these devices unless there are specific needs for mobile resources.

With these pros and cons in mind, it is easy imagine some scenarios where mobile devices would be fun to have. You might even be able come up with some scenarios where they would actually be useful. But I suspect it would be difficult to come up with a scenario where you could fully justify the cost of a mobile device over a desktop/laptop based on an increase in productivity.

Bottom-line: If you want a mobile device, you're most likely not going to be able to justify it based on a productivity standpoint, i.e., get it because you want it, not because you think you need it. And if you get a mobile device, you are not going to find that your desktop/laptop is suddenly obsolete, though you may visit it slightly less often.